What to Watch For: Super Bowl XLV

Super Bowl XLV between the Green Bay Packers and Pittsburgh Steelers will boast some of the greatest player match-ups in recent memory.  Two of the eminent quarterbacks will be showing off their skills and contrasting styles.  For the first time ever, the players finishing 1, 2, and 3 in voting for Defensive Player of the Year will play in the championship game (Steelers safety Troy Polamalu, Packers linebacker Clay Matthews, and Steelers defensive end James Harrison in order).  No doubt the field will be full of unthinkable individual and collective talent at all times.  But the ‘X’ factor will be the players who use the game to make a name for themselves.  In no particular order, the players I will be watching closely are (for Green Bay) B.J. Raji, John Kuhn, and James Starks as well as (for Pittsburgh) Emmanuel Sanders, Brett Kiesel, and Bryant McFadden.

Roethlisberger is no stranger to football in the bitter cold. Which is good since Dallas is expecting an Arctic chill this Sunday.

“Big Ben” Roethlisberger and his play-lengthening ability, slippery pocket awareness, and big play potential will square off against a Packer offense led by up-and-coming Aaron Rodgers who always puts to use his football savvy, intense precision, and nose for the end zone.  On display will be the two best regular season passer ratings; Rodgers’ league best 98.0 and Roethlisberger’s 2nd place 97.0.  The only statistic these guys really pay any attention to is the letter in the W/L column, but don’t think Roethlisberger is unaware of the single point difference (and how much he’d rather be a point ahead than a point behind).  On the other side of the ball, Clay Matthews led his team with 13.5 regular season sacks and a league second best 3.5 sacks this postseason.  James Harrison has produced 10.5 regular season sacks and 3.o in the playoffs.

Not many players dwarf an NFL football the way former NCAA '10 cover boy B.J. Raji does.

Don’t think those two are unaware of their rivalry as two of the game’s best outside pass rushers.  To make the matter interesting, I’ll say that if Matthews were playing with a defensive line as talented as the Steelers’, he’d have produced 20+ sacks this season.  Opposite Harrison on the Steelers line is monster Brett Kiesel and clogging up the middle is behemoth Casey Hampton.  Those two linemen outclass their Packers counterparts Cullen Jenkins and B.J. Raji.  As a result, Harrison can attack an offensive line that has its hands full all the way across whereas Matthews, the marquee of the Packers blitz, is often picked up by a double team or a QB roll-out.  Matthews claws and fights for his sack production while Harrison is just a talented piece to a talented pass rush scheme.

Needless to say, the Steelers will be able to create more QB pressure and hurries.  So, the Packers will either have to work hard on blitz pick-up (having John Kuhn is a good start) or they will have to grit and bear the idea of running down the throats of a monstrous Steelers front seven.  Again, having John Kuhn is a good start.

Rookie sensation James Starks has reenergized the Packers ground attack.

But Kuhn is a blocker and a third-down back, and part of the reason the Pack had only 100.8 rush yards per game this season earning an overall ranking of 24th in the league.  The solution?  Some rookie named James Starks who didn’t even play his senior year at Buffalo.  Starks earned his renown in the Packers’ 21-16 win over the Eagles in the wild card game in which he rushed for over 100 yards more than doubling his 27 carries in the regular season.

In order for the Packers to have a shot at outpacing the Steelers’ finely tuned offense, Starks will have to run for more than 100 yards and it will have to be a lot of off-tackle running – Polamalu and the rest of the secondary are the team’s best tacklers and won’t bleed yards the way the Eagles did.  Rodgers needs to throw accurately the whole game, anything above two turnovers is a death sentence.  Defensively, the Packers need to stunt their blitzes and bring pressure in the A-gaps as rookie Pro Bowl selection Maurkice Pouncey will be replaced by Doug Legursky.  Clay Matthews can have a quiet game so long as he eats up the Steelers offensive blockers and creates opportunities for corner blitzes and stunting in the middle of the line.  The issue of tackling Roethlisberger is just a matter of desire.  The big man doesn’t go to the ground the way the other great passers do but he’s not especially agile.  If the Packers don’t bite pump fakes and wrap him up when they get the chance, they’ll make quick work of the long passing game.  And the Packers secondary is going to have to be sure tacklers, at least for one night.  If all these things happen perfectly, the Pack can win the game by a score of 23-17.  If any component is missing, they’ll be trailing early and never stage a comeback.