What to Watch For: Super Bowl XLV

Super Bowl XLV between the Green Bay Packers and Pittsburgh Steelers will boast some of the greatest player match-ups in recent memory.  Two of the eminent quarterbacks will be showing off their skills and contrasting styles.  For the first time ever, the players finishing 1, 2, and 3 in voting for Defensive Player of the Year will play in the championship game (Steelers safety Troy Polamalu, Packers linebacker Clay Matthews, and Steelers defensive end James Harrison in order).  No doubt the field will be full of unthinkable individual and collective talent at all times.  But the ‘X’ factor will be the players who use the game to make a name for themselves.  In no particular order, the players I will be watching closely are (for Green Bay) B.J. Raji, John Kuhn, and James Starks as well as (for Pittsburgh) Emmanuel Sanders, Brett Kiesel, and Bryant McFadden.

Roethlisberger is no stranger to football in the bitter cold. Which is good since Dallas is expecting an Arctic chill this Sunday.

“Big Ben” Roethlisberger and his play-lengthening ability, slippery pocket awareness, and big play potential will square off against a Packer offense led by up-and-coming Aaron Rodgers who always puts to use his football savvy, intense precision, and nose for the end zone.  On display will be the two best regular season passer ratings; Rodgers’ league best 98.0 and Roethlisberger’s 2nd place 97.0.  The only statistic these guys really pay any attention to is the letter in the W/L column, but don’t think Roethlisberger is unaware of the single point difference (and how much he’d rather be a point ahead than a point behind).  On the other side of the ball, Clay Matthews led his team with 13.5 regular season sacks and a league second best 3.5 sacks this postseason.  James Harrison has produced 10.5 regular season sacks and 3.o in the playoffs.

Not many players dwarf an NFL football the way former NCAA '10 cover boy B.J. Raji does.

Don’t think those two are unaware of their rivalry as two of the game’s best outside pass rushers.  To make the matter interesting, I’ll say that if Matthews were playing with a defensive line as talented as the Steelers’, he’d have produced 20+ sacks this season.  Opposite Harrison on the Steelers line is monster Brett Kiesel and clogging up the middle is behemoth Casey Hampton.  Those two linemen outclass their Packers counterparts Cullen Jenkins and B.J. Raji.  As a result, Harrison can attack an offensive line that has its hands full all the way across whereas Matthews, the marquee of the Packers blitz, is often picked up by a double team or a QB roll-out.  Matthews claws and fights for his sack production while Harrison is just a talented piece to a talented pass rush scheme.

Needless to say, the Steelers will be able to create more QB pressure and hurries.  So, the Packers will either have to work hard on blitz pick-up (having John Kuhn is a good start) or they will have to grit and bear the idea of running down the throats of a monstrous Steelers front seven.  Again, having John Kuhn is a good start.

Rookie sensation James Starks has reenergized the Packers ground attack.

But Kuhn is a blocker and a third-down back, and part of the reason the Pack had only 100.8 rush yards per game this season earning an overall ranking of 24th in the league.  The solution?  Some rookie named James Starks who didn’t even play his senior year at Buffalo.  Starks earned his renown in the Packers’ 21-16 win over the Eagles in the wild card game in which he rushed for over 100 yards more than doubling his 27 carries in the regular season.

In order for the Packers to have a shot at outpacing the Steelers’ finely tuned offense, Starks will have to run for more than 100 yards and it will have to be a lot of off-tackle running – Polamalu and the rest of the secondary are the team’s best tacklers and won’t bleed yards the way the Eagles did.  Rodgers needs to throw accurately the whole game, anything above two turnovers is a death sentence.  Defensively, the Packers need to stunt their blitzes and bring pressure in the A-gaps as rookie Pro Bowl selection Maurkice Pouncey will be replaced by Doug Legursky.  Clay Matthews can have a quiet game so long as he eats up the Steelers offensive blockers and creates opportunities for corner blitzes and stunting in the middle of the line.  The issue of tackling Roethlisberger is just a matter of desire.  The big man doesn’t go to the ground the way the other great passers do but he’s not especially agile.  If the Packers don’t bite pump fakes and wrap him up when they get the chance, they’ll make quick work of the long passing game.  And the Packers secondary is going to have to be sure tacklers, at least for one night.  If all these things happen perfectly, the Pack can win the game by a score of 23-17.  If any component is missing, they’ll be trailing early and never stage a comeback.

Zygi Wilf Finally Fires Chilly

After my team’s players come out (anonymously) to the media for the sole purpose of expressing their dissatisfaction with their divisive head coach, I would do exactly what Zygi Wilf did.  That is, I would wait two more weeks for the team to lose two more games by a combined 58-16 (and move completely out of playoff contention) before making the coaching change.

Brad Childress, fired ten games after signing a contract extension with the Vikings

By waiting until the team hit 3-7, Wilf ensures that there is not “production” pressure on interim head coach and defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier.  That is, at 3-7, Frazier will feel more comfortable knowing that there is no real hope for making the playoffs (Vikings would likely have to win out and finish 9-7) and will be able to simply manage the team and set into place his M.O. in Minnesota.  There are no indications thus far that Frazier is a lock for the permanent head coaching position and with big names like Cowher and Gruden expressing interest in getting back to coaching in the NFL, it’s unlikely that Frazier will keep his head coaching job.  Though I’m not quite sure why his defensive coordinator job is such a safe bet; the Vikings once-feared defensive line has produced no pass rush this year and big money talent like Pat and Kevin Williams along with DE Jared Allen have been grossly underperforming.  Jared Allen is on pace for about 9 sacks this season (compared to 14+ each of the last three years) and the defense as a whole is giving up 22.6 points per game – 19th in the league.

I’m just glad that for the rest of the season the attention in Minnesota will be taken off of Brad Childress and Brett Favre and back on some of the major problems the Vikings players were happy to have overshadowed by the diva squabbling.  To all the ESPN analysts: I know it’s a story that sells but Favre isn’t the big bust this year!  Sure, it would be nice if he were to show up with vintage Favre magic but that’s not a reasonable expectation.  All Favre can offer is better talent at quarterback than Tarvaris Jackson – and he does.  I don’t care how many picks he throws, he will continue to be the better quarterback so long as Tarvaris Jackson and Joe Webb are the best alternatives.  Let’s talk about some big stories.  How about a receiver core as decimated as the Colts’.  Percy Harvin hasn’t played at 100% yet this year and is doubtful to play at all next week with an ankle injury, Sidney Rice missed the first 10 games of the season after receiving for 1300+ yards last year and finding pay dirt 8 times, and veteran deep threat Bernard Berrian has seen limited play due to injuries and has only caught 18 passes as of week 11.  So, Brett Favre is throwing the ball to devastatingly talented receivers like Greg Camarillo, Greg Lewis, and Hank Baskett.  Really, devastating.

Greg Camarillo cannot be your ace in the hole

I realize that Peyton Manning has been able to “make do” with a ton of offensive injuries but he still has his go-to receiver in Reggie Wayne.  Favre and Rice were a budding duo when Rice sustained his injury, now he has no go-to guy.  Another story that needs some attention is the Vikings offensive line.  In his last 4 years with the Packers (’04-’07) Favre was sacked an average of 18 times per season.  In his first with the Vikings, he was sacked 34 times and their on pace for to exceed that number this year.  Yes, the fault for a sack falls partly on the O-line and partly on the quarterback.  Often poor “pocket presence” is to blame.  If you think Brett’s pocket presence is lacking, then you must be one of his offensive lineman.

Perhaps Frazier will hone in on these real issues and let the media salivate over Favre drama all they want while the team as a whole gets to shaping up.  12-4 last year, the Vikes can be a real contender next year if they start sniffing out the weak parts and stop letting the media dictate what aspects of the team get attention.  Get the spotlight back on starts like Adrian Peterson, Jared Allen, and the Williams Wall – and get back to the 2011 playoffs.

Making Sense of the Parity in the NFL This Year: Top 5 Week 11

Most football fans have noticed a dramatic change in the NFL this year. The playing field seems to have been leveled such that no team is an easy win.  For example, although winless through 7 games, the Buffalo Bills pushed two games to overtime and lost by 4th-quarter drives twice.  Also, many of the familiar details of early season football were missing: the newest team in the league, the Houston Texans, steamrolled Peyton Manning and the Colts, a record 13 overtime games were played in the first 9 weeks, and the perennial eye-sore of the league, the Kansas City Chiefs were the last unbeaten squad this year.  Perhaps my favorite indicator is that quarterbacks are staying on the field through the 4th quarter because so few games are blowout wins.  I can only hope that we don’t have to witness a team bench its starting quarterback for the last two games of the season because they “don’t matter”.  Some analysts are calling this season a reordering because of an influx of young talent, that these young stars are coming into their own and are taking the league by storm.

I don’t think so.  If you browse the NFL’s current individual statistic leaders on, say defense, there are a few new names – the Patriots’ Jerod Mayo is leading the league in sacks, rookie Seahawks safety Earl Thomas has a half-dozen interceptions and Green Bay’s Clay Matthews seems to be sacking a QB every time I turn on the TV – but in most other categories the usual suspects are where we expect them to be (Asante Samuel, DeAngelo Hall, DeMarcus Ware, and James Harrison are all league leaders).  That is, the big men of the league are still on top.  The rookie and sophomore class may be making a name for themselves but they’re not breaking things up on the stat sheet much.  What I think is changing so radically is the coaching.  This off-season saw a lot of coaching change-ups not only in personnel but also in philosophy.  The Bears brought in offensive coordinator and former Rams head coach, Mike Martz, to shake things up in Chicago with Jay Cutler and his cannon of a right arm.  Andy Reid is shaking things up in Philly by sticking with Michael Vick and an all-or-nothing explosive offensive attack.  The smarter coaches are beginning to find matching – or at least complementary – personalities between the play-caller and the quarterback.  There are some good defensive examples as well, Perry Fewell’s defense in New York has been astounding and Rob Ryan, first-year coordinator for the Cleveland Browns has been able to contain dynamic offenses with a talent-lacking defense.  Giving out awards for coaching this year is a job I would hate to have.  Needless to say, I am excited for a post-season in which the coaching will play as big a factor as the talent of the players.

For the time being, the NFL power rankings are trying to sort out the mess that we get when there is no team in the hunt for a perfect season and there isn’t a Lions squad working on a completely defeated season (in every sense of the word).  As of now, week 11, the power rankings are ordered Atlanta, New England, New York Jets, Baltimore, and Pittsburgh.  They’ve got it all wrong.  Cue my Top 5 Week 11…

1. Philadelphia Eagles

• Michael Vick is a perfect fit.  He has been throwing for around 270 yards per game in his last three starts, rushing for a modest 55 yards and making all the right decisions; he hasn’t thrown a pick this season (191 attempts)
  

  Vick leads an inspired Eagles offense

• Andy Reid seems to be getting a good read on what his offense is going to be like. In their season opener, Vick carried the ball 11 times for over 100 yards in a 20-27 loss to Green Bay – Vick can be used more effectively. LeSean McCoy has matured into a respected running back with explosive speed and better field vision.  Michael Vick throws the ball as hard as and eliminates the concern for pass protection.  Defense may win championships, but when the offense holds the ball for 33+ minutes, the defense’s load is lightened.
• Defensively, two important factors seem to be getting better with age. First, Trent Cole is a maniac.  Behind DeMarcus Ware (DAL) and Brian Orakpo (WAS) he is one of the best DE/OLB in the game.  He has a great rush around the outside and is a menace to pocket-passers.  And second, Asante Samuel has seven picks…halfway through the season.

2. Atlanta Falcons

• Michael Turner is silently on his way to another 1500-yard season and will not turn the ball over.  He’s not the fastest guy on the field, which explains the fact that he only has a single TD run of 3o yards or more.  But he sacrifices some speed for ball security, a compromise any coach would applaud.
• The defense lacks a pass rush but but a disciplined secondary keeps receivers in front of them and out of the end zone.  And as they are proving, you can bleed yards through the air all day but if you keep the other team kicking field goals, you can win (8 out of 10 games).
• A balanced offense keeps a defense honest.  Safeties hate playing the Falcons because they don’t get the opportunity to be game changers the way they usually are.  Defenses are wary of committing safeties to a blitz because of the screen threat and because of talented receivers like Roddy White and veteran Tony Gonzalez.

3. Baltimore Ravens

• Joe Flacco is starting to balance out the rush attack of Ray Rice and Willis McGahee, with better pass protection they will be unbeatable. 

  

  5'8" Ray Rice is the Ravens premier running back

• In their three losses, the total point differential is 13 points.  Including being edged out in Foxboro by a field-goal.
• The defense is back because Ed Reed is back.  He’s started 4 games for the Ravens this season and has produced 5 turnovers.  Terrell Suggs has 7.5 sacks and looks about as comfortably as a down lineman as he does roaming the field with Ray Lewis (who has also forced 5 turnovers, including a pick-six).

4. New York Jets

• Brian Schottenheimer is finding ways to better manage Mark Sanchez while still fostering his maturation – Sanchez is attempting 50% more passes per game than he did last season and is completing a higher percentage, too.  To his credit Sanchez has gotten much better in a single off-season but much of the offensive success has been due to the offensive structure and resurgent LaDainian Tomlinson.  In 1o starts this year, Sanchez has thrown for 15 TDs more than in 15 games last year.
• Rex Ryan seems to have finely tuned his defensive schemes and with Darrelle Revis eliminating big-name receivers, they’re a tough team to score on, giving up fewer than 18 points per game.

5. Pittsburgh Steelers

• The Steelers defense gives up 63 yards on the ground every game.  The detroit Lions give up 58 yards on the ground every quarter.  Casey Hampton, 330-pound Nose Tackle is clogging running lanes and eats up blockers like they’re his morning Wheaties, making way for great tacklers like safeties Troy Polamalu and Ryan Clark – both of whom have logged more than 50 tackles this season.
  

  Menden-hauling it downfield

• Rashard Mendenhall came to play this season.  He’s quietly rushed for 8 TDs and over 800 yards.  And, for a 5’10″ 225-pound bruiser, he sure can get down the field.  He has a pair of 30+ yard TD sprints and has become the Steelers’ featured back with 20 touches a game.
• I’m still concerned with Roethlisberger (4-2 as starting QB while 3rd-string Charlie Batch started the Steelers 3-1).  When Pittsburgh wins, Roethlisberger has a passer rating of 112.3, when they lose he puts up 82.3.  Big Ben is the Steelers X-factor, they have proven that when he plays poorly, the team will lose.  Defenses know that getting varied pressure on Ben means getting the W.