Making Sense of the Parity in the NFL This Year: Top 5 Week 11

Most football fans have noticed a dramatic change in the NFL this year. The playing field seems to have been leveled such that no team is an easy win.  For example, although winless through 7 games, the Buffalo Bills pushed two games to overtime and lost by 4th-quarter drives twice.  Also, many of the familiar details of early season football were missing: the newest team in the league, the Houston Texans, steamrolled Peyton Manning and the Colts, a record 13 overtime games were played in the first 9 weeks, and the perennial eye-sore of the league, the Kansas City Chiefs were the last unbeaten squad this year.  Perhaps my favorite indicator is that quarterbacks are staying on the field through the 4th quarter because so few games are blowout wins.  I can only hope that we don’t have to witness a team bench its starting quarterback for the last two games of the season because they “don’t matter”.  Some analysts are calling this season a reordering because of an influx of young talent, that these young stars are coming into their own and are taking the league by storm.

I don’t think so.  If you browse the NFL’s current individual statistic leaders on, say defense, there are a few new names – the Patriots’ Jerod Mayo is leading the league in sacks, rookie Seahawks safety Earl Thomas has a half-dozen interceptions and Green Bay’s Clay Matthews seems to be sacking a QB every time I turn on the TV – but in most other categories the usual suspects are where we expect them to be (Asante Samuel, DeAngelo Hall, DeMarcus Ware, and James Harrison are all league leaders).  That is, the big men of the league are still on top.  The rookie and sophomore class may be making a name for themselves but they’re not breaking things up on the stat sheet much.  What I think is changing so radically is the coaching.  This off-season saw a lot of coaching change-ups not only in personnel but also in philosophy.  The Bears brought in offensive coordinator and former Rams head coach, Mike Martz, to shake things up in Chicago with Jay Cutler and his cannon of a right arm.  Andy Reid is shaking things up in Philly by sticking with Michael Vick and an all-or-nothing explosive offensive attack.  The smarter coaches are beginning to find matching – or at least complementary – personalities between the play-caller and the quarterback.  There are some good defensive examples as well, Perry Fewell’s defense in New York has been astounding and Rob Ryan, first-year coordinator for the Cleveland Browns has been able to contain dynamic offenses with a talent-lacking defense.  Giving out awards for coaching this year is a job I would hate to have.  Needless to say, I am excited for a post-season in which the coaching will play as big a factor as the talent of the players.

For the time being, the NFL power rankings are trying to sort out the mess that we get when there is no team in the hunt for a perfect season and there isn’t a Lions squad working on a completely defeated season (in every sense of the word).  As of now, week 11, the power rankings are ordered Atlanta, New England, New York Jets, Baltimore, and Pittsburgh.  They’ve got it all wrong.  Cue my Top 5 Week 11…

1. Philadelphia Eagles

• Michael Vick is a perfect fit.  He has been throwing for around 270 yards per game in his last three starts, rushing for a modest 55 yards and making all the right decisions; he hasn’t thrown a pick this season (191 attempts)
  

  Vick leads an inspired Eagles offense

• Andy Reid seems to be getting a good read on what his offense is going to be like. In their season opener, Vick carried the ball 11 times for over 100 yards in a 20-27 loss to Green Bay – Vick can be used more effectively. LeSean McCoy has matured into a respected running back with explosive speed and better field vision.  Michael Vick throws the ball as hard as and eliminates the concern for pass protection.  Defense may win championships, but when the offense holds the ball for 33+ minutes, the defense’s load is lightened.
• Defensively, two important factors seem to be getting better with age. First, Trent Cole is a maniac.  Behind DeMarcus Ware (DAL) and Brian Orakpo (WAS) he is one of the best DE/OLB in the game.  He has a great rush around the outside and is a menace to pocket-passers.  And second, Asante Samuel has seven picks…halfway through the season.

2. Atlanta Falcons

• Michael Turner is silently on his way to another 1500-yard season and will not turn the ball over.  He’s not the fastest guy on the field, which explains the fact that he only has a single TD run of 3o yards or more.  But he sacrifices some speed for ball security, a compromise any coach would applaud.
• The defense lacks a pass rush but but a disciplined secondary keeps receivers in front of them and out of the end zone.  And as they are proving, you can bleed yards through the air all day but if you keep the other team kicking field goals, you can win (8 out of 10 games).
• A balanced offense keeps a defense honest.  Safeties hate playing the Falcons because they don’t get the opportunity to be game changers the way they usually are.  Defenses are wary of committing safeties to a blitz because of the screen threat and because of talented receivers like Roddy White and veteran Tony Gonzalez.

3. Baltimore Ravens

• Joe Flacco is starting to balance out the rush attack of Ray Rice and Willis McGahee, with better pass protection they will be unbeatable. 

  

  5'8" Ray Rice is the Ravens premier running back

• In their three losses, the total point differential is 13 points.  Including being edged out in Foxboro by a field-goal.
• The defense is back because Ed Reed is back.  He’s started 4 games for the Ravens this season and has produced 5 turnovers.  Terrell Suggs has 7.5 sacks and looks about as comfortably as a down lineman as he does roaming the field with Ray Lewis (who has also forced 5 turnovers, including a pick-six).

4. New York Jets

• Brian Schottenheimer is finding ways to better manage Mark Sanchez while still fostering his maturation – Sanchez is attempting 50% more passes per game than he did last season and is completing a higher percentage, too.  To his credit Sanchez has gotten much better in a single off-season but much of the offensive success has been due to the offensive structure and resurgent LaDainian Tomlinson.  In 1o starts this year, Sanchez has thrown for 15 TDs more than in 15 games last year.
• Rex Ryan seems to have finely tuned his defensive schemes and with Darrelle Revis eliminating big-name receivers, they’re a tough team to score on, giving up fewer than 18 points per game.

5. Pittsburgh Steelers

• The Steelers defense gives up 63 yards on the ground every game.  The detroit Lions give up 58 yards on the ground every quarter.  Casey Hampton, 330-pound Nose Tackle is clogging running lanes and eats up blockers like they’re his morning Wheaties, making way for great tacklers like safeties Troy Polamalu and Ryan Clark – both of whom have logged more than 50 tackles this season.
  

  Menden-hauling it downfield

• Rashard Mendenhall came to play this season.  He’s quietly rushed for 8 TDs and over 800 yards.  And, for a 5’10″ 225-pound bruiser, he sure can get down the field.  He has a pair of 30+ yard TD sprints and has become the Steelers’ featured back with 20 touches a game.
• I’m still concerned with Roethlisberger (4-2 as starting QB while 3rd-string Charlie Batch started the Steelers 3-1).  When Pittsburgh wins, Roethlisberger has a passer rating of 112.3, when they lose he puts up 82.3.  Big Ben is the Steelers X-factor, they have proven that when he plays poorly, the team will lose.  Defenses know that getting varied pressure on Ben means getting the W.